Italy, the first place is not enough to convince the bookmakers: Germany is favored

Fourth day of the Nations League group C: the Azzurri aim to defend the first place. Precedents in favor, but the last victory in official matches against the Germans was in 2012

Italy has regained polish and results, so much so that it is at the top of the Nations League group C after three days: the Azzurri have 5 points, Hungary 4, Germany 3 and England 2. One in a row, probably not in the order one would have expected. An appointment is missing to close the row of matches before the summer, then we will talk about it again in September: Roberto Mancini’s team is called to a tough test, on the field of Germany. An important match because it can be a confirmation, but in the event of a negative result it would risk reversing the situation in the standings. Match to which Italy – despite the ranking and the moment of form – comes as an underdog.

The moment

The two teams find themselves ten days after the first match, on the first day of the group: 1-1 at Dall’Ara with Pellegrini’s advantage – on an assist from Gnonto – before Kimmich’s immediate draw. The Azzurri then scored four points in two games: a home win against Hungary and a draw in Wolverhampton against England. Germany, on the other hand, only drew and always 1-1: after the match in Bologna the same result came at home against England and on the field of Hungary. Also considering the friendlies, the Germans come from four consecutive 1-1: the last victory dates back to March 26, 2-0 against Israel. As reported by OddsChecker, the men of Flick aim to equal the positive streak of 12 consecutive useful results obtained between September 2019 and November 2020.


This edition of the Nations League breathes new life into the historic rivalry between Italy and Germany. The balance of the precedents is in favor of the Azzurri: 15 victories against the nine won by the Germans, 12 draws. But the Italian national team has not overtaken their opponents in an official match for 10 years: June 28, 2012, the semi-final of the European Championship. Balotelli took care of the team with a brace, Ozil on the net for the Germans. Then three draws and two defeats for the Azzurri. The most recent knockout came in the quarter-finals of Euro 2016: Germany’s victory after penalties with the decisive mistakes from the spot by Zaza, Pellè, Bonucci and Darmian. As analyzed by Oddschecker, no more than two total goals have been scored in the last three matches.


As mentioned, the bookmakers are betting on Germany, favored with a 57% chance. Italy’s success is worth just 22%, while the X sign stands at 21%. Much more balance in forecasting the goals scored: Over 2.5 has a 52% chance, against 48% for the opposite bet. It is more likely that both national teams will score: the Goal is rated at 54%, the No Goal at 46%.

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