Berrettini starts again (almost) from scratch: on the grass the climb starts again to return to the big names

After two and a half years at the top, in a few days he will come out of the top ten: from now on he will try to take it back with his class and above all with the same determination and patience, hoping that the body still does not play tricks on him.

Luigi Ansaloni

Matteo Berrettini’s journey has started again from Stuttgart, and even if it may not be as long, hard and introspective as Santiago’s, there is still a long way to go for the blue number, and how. The victory against Moldovan Albot in three sets is there to prove it. The result is good, and a success 89 days after the last game played and the season on clay is already a great sign, but Berry is the first to know that from now on his path is almost like a start from scratch.

out of the top 10

After two and a half years he will come out of the top ten in a few days, a goal that Berrettini had conquered tooth and nail, and confirmed in a big way with the passage of time: now the place among the 10 best players in the world will have to take it back with his class and above all with the same determination and patience, hoping that the body still does not play tricks on him. Yes, because Matteo’s problem was certainly not the lack of results, those results that he could not simply defend due to ailments. The final in Madrid, the points of Rome and Rolad Garros, heavy and fundamental for the classification, slowly disappeared due to that operation in hand.

The path

A path towards the top 10, that of Berrettini, started concretely at the beginning of 2019: in January he was number 52 in the world, on October 28 of that same year, after that incredible Us Open and the semifinal with Rafael Nadal, he was number 9 , fourth blue in history to enter the top ten after Panatta, Barazzutti and Fognini. Since that day, he has never left that place. For 102 consecutive weeks, which could reach 103. On Monday Berrettini will discard another 485 points, or half of the 2019 victory in Stuttgart and those of Roland Garros 2021, but if he reaches the final or wins in Germany, he would still remain number 10 ahead of Norrie . But for a little while.

Free fall

In fact, on June 20, Berry will lose another 500 points from the Queen’s 2021 victory and 90 from the Halle 2019 semifinal. Atp and WTA not to assign points for the Russian and Belarusian question, Matteo must necessarily win back the Queen’s or at least do well, very well, in order not to collapse and somehow stop the free fall. Free fall that, however, unwillingly or willingly, will come after the London slam, without Matteo having any fault, let us stress it once again.

The hypothesis

Let’s start with the worst case scenario, namely that of a bad result in Stuttgart and Queen’s, with immediate eliminations or in any case in the early rounds. In that case there would be over 2,200 points to be removed (including Wimbledon, but there he can’t really do anything) without adding little or nothing, which, subtracted from the 3,365 points, would bring the blue’s spoils between 1,100 and 1,150 points maximum: with the current ranking it would mean finding Berrettini between 32nd and 35th place in the ATP ranking. With the victory in Stuttgart, Berrettini could reach a maximum of 3,510 points, so even in the event of a disaster at Queen’s, he could be among the top 30 in the world. He could work a miracle and win both Stuttgart and Queen’s, Matteo would find himself, at the end of Wimbledon, with approximately 1800 points in the standings, world number 21 or so.

and in case of treble …

So, absurdly, if the blue made a sort of “treble” on the grass, also adding the Wimbledon crown, he would still risk remaining out of 20. These are the counts and numbers given by the current ranking, because there are other things that to date, the results of Berrettini’s direct competitors in the standings cannot be predicted, but the only sure thing is that the top 10 speech is closed, and it will be for some time, all of 2022 unless sensational (and always possible and desirable) exploits, for example on American soil, in Toronto or Cincinnati, or at the US Open, where he must always defend a quarter-final (lost) with Djokovic in 2021. For this reason Matteo’s journey towards returning to the positions that competing will not be easy at all, but miracles, and what miracles, he is used to …

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